US Open: Novak Djokovic benefits most from five-set matches - but could they be scrapped?

Five-set matches have produced some of the most thrilling and unforgettable moments in men's tennis history - but could they be scrapped?

As matches become longer and schedules more demanding, some are calling for the format to be replaced with best-of-three matches. We examined the data to explore how such a change could impact the sport.

The best-of-five format pushes players to their mental and physical limits, resulting in some of the most intense and memorable battles the sport has ever seen.

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Andy Murray claimed his first Grand Slam title at the US Open in 2012 after an epic, nearly five-hour, five-set battle with Novak Djokovic.

Similarly, the iconic Federer-Nadal 2008 Wimbledon final is often considered the greatest match, not only because it featured two legends at their peaks, but also because the length amplified the drama and tension.

Longer matches

Yet matches are getting longer, increasing the physical demands on players. The average length of a men's Grand Slam match in 2024 has been 172 minutes. This represents an increase of 20 per cent compared to the average duration two decades ago.

This trend isn't limited to just the four Grand Slams; tournaments that use the best-of-three format are experiencing longer match times.

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What would change?

While five-set matches stand out in memory, they are relatively rare. Approximately half of Grand Slam matches end in straight sets.

The third set in a 3-0 triumph rarely adds extra drama, as the more accomplished player typically closes out a routine victory.

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The vast majority of results would be unchanged by a format switch. In 89 per cent of Grand Slam matches in the Open Era, the player leading the match after three sets ultimately wins, making comebacks from 2-0 or 2-1 down uncommon.

If Grand Slam matches were limited to three sets, the historical average number of sets would decrease from 3.7 to 2.3, a reduction of 36 per cent.

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Around 80 per cent of the eliminated sets would be those that have no bearing on the outcome, such as the third set in a 3-0 victory or the third and fourth sets in a match where a player goes up 2-0, loses the third set, but ultimately wins 3-1.

Scheduling Grand Slam matches can be a logistical nightmare for tour organisers, particularly when the weather is uncooperative.

These marathon five-set games only exacerbate this issue, as seen when Novak Djokovic's victory over Francisco Cerundolo at the 2024 French Open was completed at 3.07am.

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Who would lose out?

While Djokovic withdrew from the French Open after the gruelling late-night match due to a knee injury, he has been the main beneficiary of the best-of-five format.

In eight of his 24 Grand Slam titles, he has had to come back from being 2-0 or 2-1 down at some stage of the tournament.

By contrast, Federer typically enjoyed a more serene route to his titles, only needing to overcome a deficit en route to two of them.

Twenty Grand Slam finals would have a different victor had the match ended after three sets.

However, most Grand Slam champions easily breeze through the opening week. Approximately 75 per cent of comebacks by champions occur in the second week, when they typically face tougher, higher-seeded opponents.

One argument put forward is to make the first week, when schedules are typically busier, best-of-three sets, reserving the best-of-five format for the more competitive second week.

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